Iran's nuclear capabilities and Israel

Iran. Gevalt! Does anyone know what is happening in Iran? It's the story that refuses to go away despite our inclination to put our collective head in the sand and hope it will go away. We don't know what is happening there. Are nuclear weapons aborning? Or are the Bushies crying Wolfowitz again the way they did with the non-existent Iraqi weapons of mass destruction, and if they are, why should we believe them this time? Certified liars are, after all, certified liars. But just as paranoids occasionally have real enemies, liars sometimes tell the truth—even if inadvertently. Is this such an occasion? For the sake of argument, let's pretend that whether the administration is lying or not, that crazy Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and his ilk are really trying to develop a nuclear bomb. Word out of Israel is that he is. Israel is in rocket-range of Iran. Its opinion counts. What is Israeli reaction? It's divided. (All those who are surprised, raise your hand. Seeing none, I will proceed.)

There are those Israelis who say UN sanctions ought to be imposed to force Iran to give up its ambitions. (Stop laughing, this is serious, no, really it is, chuckle, chuckle snort hoot.) Then there are those who advocate a preemptive launch on Iran's nuclear facilities the way in 1981 Israel struck at Saddam's Osirak bomb making factory. Quick in, drop bombs, fly home. The problem is that Iran is not concentrating its efforts in a single location and knocking out sufficient targets is beyond Israel's capabilities given the added distance Israeli bombers would have to travel. Could these sites be hit by missiles? Maybe, but Israel seems not to be in the business of advertising its missile capability. Does Israel have a nuclear bomb and a missile capable of delivering it in a preemptive strike? Same answer. Let's pretend that Israel does nuke Iran. Then reality raises its ugly head, as it is wont to do.

In this scenario Israelis are divided between minimalists (“hawks”) and maximalists (“doves”). Minimalists argue that with its anti-missile defenses, the few rockets Iran could launch in counter-attack would be shot out of the sky except for maybe one or two. Maximilists say Iran has a lot more missiles, too many to be destroyed, and that will would be destroyed is Eretz Israel. Ahmadinejad has already said that he would be content to lose half his population to Israeli nuclear attack if it meant destroying all of Israel. Is he serious? Do you want to find out?

The theory of Mutual Assured Destruction that many of us remember from the '60s and 70s was mad enough, but it proved correct. It was based on the presumption that the Commies of Moscow (A) believed that eventually they would win, so why destroy, and (B) that they wanted to wake up the next morning. With Ahmadinejad and his ilk neither of these necessarily apply. Like many of the mentally challenged of all religions, the guy seems enthralled with eschatologal visions of the end of the world brought about in the Middle East by some kind of horrific fire next time as predicted in (insert here name of some holy book). And even if he dies in the process, the world will be spared the horror of Jews and Christians polluting it as all will be gone (he to his 70 virgins, we to Gehenna). Or is he another kind of crazy, the type typified by Saddam, the type who doesn't have weapons of mass destruction but wants the world to think he does even if that means attack by outside forces? Look up Misughanah in the dictionary and you'll see these two enemies smiling at each other.

Oh, and if religious Shiite Iran gets the bomb, you can bet that Secular Sunni Jordan and secular sunni Egypt will start clamoring for one (or more) too, not so much to use against nearby Israel, but to prevent attack from the Iranians. And if they get one, can Syria be far behind, Syria which wants back the Golan, Syria that while secular and Sunni is allied to Shiite Iran through their mutual support of Hezbollah? So what is Israel to do? Attack? Or hope sanctions will be effective? What a choice. Neither will work. Probably Israel's only hope is either prayer—that Iranian leaders will be overcome by a tsunami of reason, or to engineer a coup. Bring back the Shah!